Identifying Assumptions and Research Dynamics

Andrew Ellis and Ran Spiegler

No 19112, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: A representative researcher has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an “identifying assumption†ensuring that repeated observation would provide a definitive answer to her question. She conducts research when the assumption is sufficiently plausible (given the quality of the opportunity and her current belief), and updates beliefs as if the assumption were perfectly valid. We study the dynamics of this learning process. While the rate of research cannot always increase over time, research slowdown is possible. We characterize environments in which the rate is constant. Long-run beliefs can be biased and history-dependent. We apply the model to stylized examples of empirical methodologies: experiments, causal-inference techniques, and more structural identification methods such as “calibration†and “Heckman selection.â€

JEL-codes: D89 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19112 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19112

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19112

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().