Identifying Assumptions and Research Dynamics

Andrew Ellis and Ran Spiegler

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A representative researcher has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an "identifying assumption." She conducts research when the assumption is sufficiently plausible (taking into account both current beliefs and the quality of the opportunity), and updates beliefs as if the assumption were perfectly valid. We study the dynamics of this learning process. While the rate of research cannot always increase over time, research slowdown is possible. We characterize environments in which the rate is constant. Long-run beliefs can exhibit history-dependence and "false certitude." We apply the model to stylized examples of empirical methodologies: experiments, various causal-inference techniques, and "calibration."

Date: 2024-02, Revised 2025-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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