Believe it or not, it’s all about Beliefs!

Fabrice Collard, Patrick Feve and Alain Guay

No 19103, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of Higher Order Belief (HOB) shocks, representing shifts in agents’ beliefs about others’ beliefs, on macroeconomic outcomes. The dynamic causal effects of these shocks are identified by leveraging a combination of a proxy-VAR approach and DSGE-based instruments. Our findings suggest that HOB shocks are indeed a key driver of the business cycle and account for a sizeable share of the observed business cycle volatility. Finally, our identification approach ensures that these shocks are not confounded with other structural/fundamental shocks.

Keywords: Business; cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19103 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19103

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19103
orders@cepr.org

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (repec@cepr.org).