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Capital Flows in an Aging World

Zsofia Barany (), Nicolas Coeurdacier and Stéphane Guibaud

No 13180, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries and over time. Our lifecycle model incorporates cross-country differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries' ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of capital flows across advanced and emerging countries and a substantial portion of the prolonged decline in the world interest rate.

Keywords: aging; Household Saving; International Capital Flows (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 F21 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-opm
Date: 2018-09
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