Facing the Hard Truth: Evidence from Climate Change Ignorance

Pamela Campa and Ferenc Szucs

No 21758, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: In 2025, only 60% of Americans believed in human-caused climate change, despite a strong consensus in the scientific community. This paper argues that motivated reasoning contributes to climate-change ignorance. Using a difference-in-differences design we show that layoffs in the coal-mining sector increases the share of believers in climate change. Comparing layoffs in coal mining to manufacturing confirms that the effect is specific to employment in the fossil fuel industry. Finally, we find no comparable shifts in beliefs on unrelated policy issues, suggesting that changes in climate views reflect specific self-image dynamics rather than a broader opinion shifts.

JEL-codes: D72 D83 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
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