When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Businesses

Kurmann, André, Lalé, Étienne and Julien Martin

No 21187, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a loss of 13,900 to 42,100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects.

Keywords: Tourism; Employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
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