Can Refugees Mitigate Local Decline? Evidence from the Forced Displacement of Serbs during the Yugoslav Wars (1991-2022)

Tancredi Buscemi, Luka Miladinovic and Anna Missiaia

No 21969, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper examines the long run effects of refugee settlement on local development amid demographic decline. We study Serbs displaced from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to Serbia during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, exploiting variation in refugee settlement across municipalities. From 1991 to 2022, receiving municipalities experienced stronger population retention, housing growth, night-time luminosity (proxying economic development), and high school completion. These findings suggest that refugee inflows can mitigate local decline rather than merely generate short run adjustment costs. Policy responses to refugee crises should therefore account for their potential long run contributions to demographic resilience, economic development, and human capital accumulation.

Date: 2026-09
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