The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

Lin Ma, Gil Shapira, Damien de Walque, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman and Andrei Levchenko

No 16227, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns tocontain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns actually can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produce a net mortality increase.

Keywords: Covid-19; Child mortality; Lockdown; Sir-macro (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-02
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Related works:
Journal Article: THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE‐OFF OF COVID‐19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES (2022)
Working Paper: The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies (2021)
Working Paper: The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies (2021)
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