The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows

Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Alessio Moro

No 21480, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984--2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to non-college workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from non-employment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from non-employment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins.

Keywords: Labor market polarization; Worker flows; Occupational mobility; Routine-biased technological change; Longitudinal data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J21 J24 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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