The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows

Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Alessio Moro

No 21480, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Using a French administrative panel following workers over 1984-2021, we quantify how worker flows account for employment polarization. We trace job-to-job flows across manual, routine, and abstract occupations, and flows between employment and non-employment. Polarization emerges after 1994 mostly through a shift in the latter: a collapse in entry into routine jobs, concentrated in routine-cognitive occupations. Job-to-job upgrading from routine to abstract remains large and stable, with non-college workers accounting for 76% of net flows. Manual employment grows mainly by absorbing entrants. Polarization reflects sorting at entry and re-entry rather than incumbent displacement, motivating life-cycle models incorporating both margins.

Keywords: Labor market polarization; Worker flows; Occupational mobility; Routine-biased technological change; Longitudinal data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J21 J24 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Anatomy of Polarization. Evidence from Worker Flows (2026)
Working Paper: The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows (2026)
Working Paper: The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows (2026)
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