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The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Oscar Jorda () and Alan Taylor ()

No 9646, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state-contingent framework. We achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity-score based methods for time series data. Using this novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a one percent of GDP fiscal consolidation translates into 4 percent lower real GDP after five years when implemented in the slump rather than the boom. We illustrate our findings with a counterfactual evaluation of the impact of the U.K. government’s shift to austerity policies in 2010 on subsequent growth.

Keywords: allocation bias; austerity; average treatment effect; booms; fiscal policy; identification; inverse probability weighting; matching; multipliers; output fluctuations; slumps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 C99 E32 E62 H20 H5 N10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pub
Date: 2013-09
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Related works:
Journal Article: The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy (2013) Downloads
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