Have long-term inflation expectations declined?

Fernanda Nechio

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015

Abstract: Based on surveys of professional forecasters, expectations for price inflation 5 to 10 years ahead have edged down over the past few years. This decline seems to be primarily driven by revised expectations from forecasters who overestimated inflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Currently, the median survey-based expectation for long-term inflation is close to its pre-recession level and appears well anchored at the Fed?s 2% longer-run inflation objective.

Date: 2015
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