FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

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2020, volume 2020, articles 37

2020 Lessons, 2021 Priorities pp. 01-08

Mary Daly

2020, volume 2020, articles 36

Permanent and Transitory Effects of the 2008–09 Recession pp. 01-05

Andrew Foerster and Lily Seitelman

2020, volume 2020, articles 35

Small Business Lending during COVID-19 pp. 01-05

Remy Beauregard, Jose Lopez and Mark Spiegel

2020, volume 2020, articles 34

Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment in the Pandemic pp. 01-05

Noah Kouchekinia, Marianna Kudlyak, Mitchell Ochse and Erin Wolcott

2020, volume 2020, articles 33

Sudden Stops and COVID-19: Lessons from Mexico’s History pp. 01-05

Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok and Alessandro Rebucci

2020, volume 2020, articles 32

Is the Federal Reserve Contributing to Economic Inequality? pp. 07

Mary Daly

2020, volume 2020, articles 31

Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data pp. 01-06

Kevin Lansing

2020, volume 2020, articles 30

Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis pp. 01-05

Sophia M. Friesenhahn and Simon Kwan

2020, volume 2020, articles 29

Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates pp. 01-05

Remy Beauregard and Mark Spiegel

2020, volume 2020, articles 28

Did the $600 Unemployment Supplement Discourage Work? pp. 01-05

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

2020, volume 2020, articles 27

Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer pp. 01-05

Régis Barnichon and Winnie Yee

2020, volume 2020, articles 26

The Illusion of Wage Growth pp. 01-05

Erin E. Crust, Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn

2020, volume 2020, articles 25

Disruptions to Starting a Business during COVID-19 pp. 01-05

Huiyu Li and Mitchell Ochse

2020, volume 2020, articles 24

Monitoring the Inflationary Effects of COVID-19 pp. 01-06

Adam Shapiro

2020, volume 2020, articles 23

Emerging Bond Markets and COVID-19: Evidence from Mexico pp. 01-05

Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz

2020, volume 2020, articles 22

Average-Inflation Targeting and the Effective Lower Bound pp. 01

Renuka Diwan, Sylvain Leduc and Thomas Mertens

2020, volume 2020, articles 21

The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth pp. 5

Andrew Foerster, Christian Matthes and Lily Seitelman

2020, volume 2020, articles 20

The Fog of Numbers pp. 5

Oscar Jorda, Noah Kouchekinia, Colton Merrill and Tatevik Sekhposyan

2020, volume 2020, articles 19

Rising Wildfire Risk for the 12th District Economy pp. 5

James Aylward and Luiz E. Oliveira

2020, volume 2020, articles 18

COVID-19 and CO2 pp. 06

Galina Hale and Sylvain Leduc

2020, volume 2020, articles 17

The Unequal Impact of COVID-19: Why Education Matters pp. 5

Shelby R. Buckman, Mary Daly and Lily Seitelman

2020, volume 2020, articles 16

Are Banks Exposed to Interest Rate Risk? pp. 05

Pascal Paul and Simon Zhu

2020, volume 2020, articles 15

We Can’t Afford Not To pp. 08

Mary Daly

2020, volume 2020, articles 14

Market Assessment of COVID-19 pp. 5

Simon Kwan and Thomas Mertens

2020, volume 2020, articles 13

The COVID-19 Fiscal Multiplier: Lessons from the Great Recession pp. 5

Daniel Wilson

2020, volume 2020, articles 12

An Unemployment Crisis after the Onset of COVID-19 pp. 5

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

2020, volume 2020, articles 11

Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation pp. 5

Jens Christensen, James M. Gamble and Simon Zhu

2020, volume 2020, articles 10

Historical Patterns around Financial Crises pp. 05

Pascal Paul and Joseph H. Pedtke

2020, volume 2020, articles 09

Mitigating COVID-19 Effects with Conventional Monetary Policy pp. 05

Vasco Cúrdia

2020, volume 2020, articles 08

News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 pp. 05

Shelby R. Buckman, Adam Shapiro, Moritz Sudhof and Daniel Wilson

2020, volume 2020, articles 07

The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus pp. 05

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2020, volume 2020, articles 06

Why Is Unemployment Currently So Low? pp. 05

Marianna Kudlyak and Mitchell Ochse

2020, volume 2020, articles 05

Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation? pp. 05

Robert Amano, Thomas Carter and Sylvain Leduc

2020, volume 2020, articles 04

The New Stone Soup pp. 07

Mary Daly

2020, volume 2020, articles 03

Wringing the Overoptimism from FOMC Growth Forecasts pp. 05

Kevin Lansing and Winnie Yee

2020, volume 2020, articles 02

Who from Out of the Labor Force Is Most Likely to Find a Job? pp. 05

Marianna Kudlyak

2020, volume 2020, articles 01

Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit pp. 05

David Neumark and Peter Shirley

2019, volume 2019, articles 31

The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference pp. 5

Galina Hale, Oscar Jorda and Glenn Rudebusch

2019

How Much Do We Spend on Imports?

Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson

Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?

Sylvain Leduc, Chitra Marti and Daniel Wilson

Nonmanufacturing as an Engine of Growth

Huiyu Li

How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?

Vasco Cúrdia

Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve

Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman

Measuring Connectedness between the Largest Banks

Galina Hale, Jose Lopez and Shannon Sledz

Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China

Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson

Modeling Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

Climate Change and the Federal Reserve

Glenn Rudebusch

Does the Fed Know More about the Economy?

Pascal Paul

Banks’ Real Estate Exposure and Resilience

Simon Kwan

The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target

Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable

Kevin Lansing

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound

Jens Christensen

Is the Hot Economy Pulling New Workers into the Labor Force?

Régis Barnichon

Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?

Andrew Foerster and Sylvain Leduc

Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?

John Fernald and Huiyu Li

How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson

Why Is Inflation Low Globally?

Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman

The Brexit Price Spike

Neil Gerstein, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Adam Shapiro

Unemployment: Lower for Longer?

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

A New Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Tradeoffs in a Changing World

Mary Daly

Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices

Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens

Are Workers Losing to Robots?

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT

John Fernald, Neil Gerstein and Mark Spiegel

Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Policy Rates

Jens Christensen

Is Rising Concentration Hampering Productivity Growth?

Pete Klenow, Huiyu Li and Theodore Naff

Riders on the Storm

Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession

Marianna Kudlyak