How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark Watson

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019

Abstract: Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors?construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services?account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.

Date: 2019
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