FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

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2022, volume 2023, articles 03

Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening pp. 6

Simon Kwan and Louis Liu

2022, volume 2022, articles 36

Recession Prediction on the Clock pp. 06

Thomas Mertens

2022, volume 2022, articles 35

When the Fed Raises Rates, Are Banks Less Profitable? pp. 06

Pascal Paul

2022, volume 2022, articles 34

Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound pp. 5

Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen and Dmitriy Sergeyev

2022, volume 2022, articles 32

Passing Along Housing Wealth from Parents to Children pp. 6

Matteo Benetton, Marianna Kudlyak, Louis Liu, John Mondragon and Mitchell Ochse

2022, volume 2022, articles 31

Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations? pp. 6

Augustus Kmetz, Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

2022, volume 2022, articles 30

Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate pp. 5

Jason Choi, Taeyoung Doh, Andrew Foerster and Zinnia Martinez

2022, volume 2022, articles 29

Comparing Measures of Housing Inflation pp. 6

Leila Bengali

2022, volume 2022, articles 28

What If? Monetary Policy in Hindsight pp. 6

Régis Barnichon

2022, volume 2022, articles 27

The Singularity of the Dual Mandate pp. 8

Mary Daly

2022, volume 2022, articles 26

Remote Work and Housing Demand pp. 5

Augustus Kmetz, John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland

2022, volume 2022, articles 25

Wage Growth When Inflation Is High pp. 6

Oscar Jorda, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio and Fabián Rivera-Reyes

2022, volume 2022, articles 24

Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve pp. 6

Brandyn Bok, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Robert Valletta and Mary Yilma

2022, volume 2022, articles 23

The Impact of Weather on Retail Sales pp. 5

Brigitte Roth Tran

Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability pp. 6

Mary Daly

2022, volume 2022, articles 22

Two Years into COVID, What’s the State of U.S. Businesses? pp. 6

Pascal Paul

2022, volume 2022, articles 21

Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments? pp. 6

Reuven Glick, Sylvain Leduc and Mollie Pepper

2022, volume 2022, articles 20

COVID-19 Fiscal Expansion and Inflation Expectations in Japan pp. 5

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

2022, volume 2022, articles 19

The Unequal Effect of Interest Rates by Race, Gender pp. 5

Aina Puig

2022, volume 2022, articles 18

The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up? pp. 06

Jens Christensen

2022, volume 2022, articles 17

Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance pp. 07

Mary Daly

2022, volume 2022, articles 16

Credit Conditions in the Pandemic Mortgage Market pp. 06

John Mondragon

2022, volume 2022, articles 15

How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation? pp. 06

Adam Shapiro

2022, volume 2022, articles 14

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment pp. 05

Brandyn Bok and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2022, volume 2022, articles 13

Untangling Persistent versus Transitory Shocks to Inflation pp. 05

Kevin Lansing

2022, volume 2022, articles 12

Pandemic Unemployment Effects across Demographic Groups pp. 05

Evgeniya A. Duzhak

2022, volume 2022, articles 11

Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve pp. 05

Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens

2022, volume 2022, articles 10

Steering Toward Sustainable Growth pp. 6

Mary Daly

2022, volume 2022, articles 09

Unemployment Insurance Withdrawal pp. 05

Sarah Albert, Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

2022, volume 2022, articles 08

“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries pp. 06

Bart Hobijn

2022, volume 2022, articles 07

Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries? pp. 06

Oscar Jorda, Celeste Liu, Fernanda Nechio and Fabián Rivera-Reyes

2022, volume 2022, articles 06

How Are Businesses Responding to Climate Risk? pp. 06

Hishgee Jargalsaikhan, Sylvain Leduc and Luiz E. Oliveira

2022, volume 2022, articles 05

This Time Is Different…Because We Are pp. 08

Mary Daly

2022, volume 2022, articles 04

What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack? pp. 05

Régis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro

2022, volume 2022, articles 03

Will Rising Rents Push Up Future Inflation? pp. 05

Kevin Lansing, Luiz E. Oliveira and Adam Shapiro

2022, volume 2022, articles 02

Searching for Maximum Employment pp. 06

Sarah Albert and Robert Valletta

2022, volume 2022, articles 01

Average Inflation Targeting in the Financial Crisis Recovery pp. 05

Vasco Cúrdia

2021, volume 2021, articles 33

Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries pp. 05

Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

2021, volume 2021, articles 32

Employment Effects of COVID-19 across States, Sectors pp. 05

Sarah Albert, Andrew Foerster and Pierre Daniel Sarte

2021, volume 2021, articles 31

Policymaking in a Time of Uncertainty pp. 06

Mary Daly

2021, volume 2021, articles 30

How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19? pp. 5

Samuel R. Tarasewicz and Daniel Wilson

2021, volume 2021, articles 29

What Would It Cost to Issue 50-year Treasury Bonds? pp. 05

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche

2021, volume 2021, articles 28

Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall pp. 05

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2021, volume 2021, articles 27

Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s? pp. 06

Régis Barnichon, Luiz E. Oliveira and Adam Shapiro

2021, volume 2021, articles 26

From Gaps to Growth: Equity as a Path to Prosperity pp. 01-07

Mary Daly

2021, volume 2021, articles 25

How Do Business Cycles Affect Worker Groups Differently? pp. 01-06

Evgeniya A. Duzhak

2021, volume 2021, articles 24

Effects of Asset Valuations on U.S. Wealth Distribution pp. 01-06

Renuka Diwan, Evgeniya A. Duzhak and Thomas Mertens

2021, volume 2021, articles 23

How Do Low and Negative Interest Rates Affect Banks? pp. 01-05

Olivia Lofton and Mauricio Ulate

2021, volume 2021, articles 22

Labor Productivity in a Pandemic pp. 01-05

John Fernald, Huiyu Li and Mitchell Ochse

2021, volume 2021, articles 21

Return of the Original Phillips Curve pp. 01-06

Peter Lihn Jørgensen and Kevin Lansing

2021, volume 2021, articles 20

Minority Banks during the COVID-19 Pandemic pp. 01-05

Sophia M. Friesenhahn and Simon Kwan

2021, volume 2021, articles 19

Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge? pp. 06

Reuven Glick, Noah Kouchekinia, Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2021, volume 2021, articles 18

How Much Did the CARES Act Help Households Stay Afloat? pp. 06

James Aylward, Elizabeth Laderman, Luiz E. Oliveira and Gladys Teng

2021, volume 2021, articles 17

Climate Risk and the Fed: Preparing for an Uncertain Certainty pp. 08

Mary Daly

2021, volume 2021, articles 16

The Economy’s Response to Potential Climate Policy pp. 01-05

Stephie Fried, Kevin Novan and William Peterman

2021, volume 2021, articles 15

The Divergent Signals about Labor Market Slack pp. 01-06

Troy Gilchrist and Bart Hobijn

2021, volume 2021, articles 14

Fiscal Multiplier at the Zero Bound: Evidence from Japan pp. 01-05

Ethan Goode, Zheng Liu and Thuy Lan Nguyen

2021, volume 2021, articles 13

Exploring the Safety Premium of Safe Assets pp. 01-05

Jens Christensen and Nikola Mirkov

2021, volume 2021, articles 12

The Last Resort in a Changing Landscape pp. 01-07

Mary Daly

2021, volume 2021, articles 11

Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed? pp. 01-06

Daniel Wilson

2021, volume 2021, articles 10

Parental Participation in a Pandemic Labor Market pp. 01-05

Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lily Seitelman

2021, volume 2021, articles 09

Capital Flow Surges and Rising Income Inequality pp. 01-05

Renuka Diwan, Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel

2021, volume 2021, articles 08

Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts pp. 01-05

Reuven Glick and Noah Kouchekinia

2021, volume 2021, articles 07

Lessons from History, Policy for Today pp. 01-07

Mary Daly

2021, volume 2021, articles 06

Resilience of Community Banks in the Time of COVID-19 pp. 01-05

Simon Kwan

2021, volume 2021, articles 05

Contrasting U.S. and European Job Markets during COVID-19 pp. 01-05

Jean-Benoît Eyméoud, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis and Etienne Wasmer

2021, volume 2021, articles 04

Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures pp. 01-05

John Fernald, Huiyu Li and Mitchell Ochse

2021, volume 2021, articles 03

Climate Change Is a Source of Financial Risk pp. 01-06

Glenn Rudebusch

2021, volume 2021, articles 02

Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions? pp. 01-05

Régis Barnichon, Davide Debortoli and Christian Matthes

2021, volume 2021, articles 01

The Asymmetric Costs of Misperceiving R-star pp. 01-05

Andrea Ajello, Isabel Cairo, Vasco Cúrdia and Albert Queraltó