Breakeven Employment Growth

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Stephanie Stewart

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024, vol. 2024, issue 18, 5

Abstract: Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.

Keywords: covid19; employment growth; unemployment rate; job growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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