Will the economic recovery die of old age?

Glenn Rudebusch

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016

Abstract: Is the current recovery more likely to end because it?s lasted so long? Have various imbalances and rigidities accumulated to make the economy frailer and more susceptible to a recessionary shock? Recent history suggests the answer is no. Instead, a long recovery appears no more likely to end than a short one. Like Peter Pan, recoveries appear to never grow old.

Date: 2016
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