Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?

Fernanda Nechio and Glenn Rudebusch

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016

Abstract: At the end of 2015, many forecasters, including some Fed policymakers, projected four hikes in the federal funds rate in 2016. Instead, there have been no increases so far this year. While this shift in Fed policy has puzzled some observers, such a course correction is not unusual from a historical perspective. In addition, given recent changes in economic conditions, the reduced federal funds rate path this year is completely consistent with past Fed behavior.

Date: 2016
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