Assessing the Recent Behavior of Inflation

Kevin Lansing

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015

Abstract: Inflation has remained below the FOMC?s long-run target of 2% for more than three years. But this sustained undershooting does not yet signal a statistically significant departure from the target once the volatility of monthly inflation rates is taken into account. Furthermore, the empirical Phillips curve relationship that links inflation to the size of production or employment gaps has been roughly stable since the early 1990s. Hence, continued improvements in production and employment relative to their long-run trends would be expected to put upward pressure on inflation.

Date: 2015
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