The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009

John Fernald (), Robert Hall (), James Stock and Mark Watson

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. Removing cyclical effects reveals that the deep recession was superimposed on a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth. The slowing trend reflects two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labor force participation. Both of these powerful adverse forces were in place before the recession and, thus, were not the result of the financial crisis or policy changes since 2009.

Date: 2018
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