Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target?

Adam Shapiro

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: A key measure of inflation finally reached the Fed?s 2% target in July after remaining persistently below that for years after the end of the last recession. Analysis shows that most of the increase in personal consumption expenditures price inflation towards the Fed?s target can be attributed to acyclical factors and are not due to a strengthening economy. While risks to the outlook for inflation appear broadly balanced, they include the considerable possibility that inflation has not yet sustainably reached target.

Date: 2018
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