The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook

Jens Christensen

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: The yield spread between long-term and short-term Treasury securities is known to be a good predictor of economic activity, particularly of looming recessions. One way to learn more is through a careful scrutiny of the historical variation of such yield spreads and how they relate to the current slope of the Treasury yield curve. The results suggest that the recent flattening of the yield curve implies only a slightly elevated risk of a recession in the near term relative to any other month.

Date: 2018
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