Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts

John Williams

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: The expansion is proceeding at a good pace, unemployment is low, and inflation is finally headed in the right direction. The data show no signs of an economy going into overdrive. This suggests that further gradual increases in interest rates are likely in 2018, assuming the data continue to come in largely as expected. The following is adapted from remarks by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Financial Women of San Francisco on February 2.

Date: 2018
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