Details about John C. Williams

E-mail:
Homepage:	https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/orgchart/williams
Phone:	(212) 720-6180
Postal address:	Federal Reserve Bank of New York Executive Offices 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045
Workplace:	Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, (more information at EDIRC) Federal Reserve Bank of New York, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John C. Williams.

Last updated 2022-11-29. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pwi23

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Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2023

1. Shifting Gears: Rebalance and Realignment in the Economy
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2022

2. A Bedrock Commitment to Price Stability
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
3. A Jack of All Trades Is a Master of None
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
4. A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2022)
5. A New York Moment
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
6. A Steady Anchor in a Stormy Sea
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
7. A Time of Uncertainty
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
8. Bridging the Skills Gap
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
9. Global Issues, Global Implications
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
10. Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2022)
11. Measuring the Ampleness of Reserves
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
12. Peeling the Inflation Onion
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
13. Price Stability: The Foundation for a Strong Economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
14. Reading the Recovery
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
15. Restoring Balance
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
16. Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
17. The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
18. The Right Tools for Our Time
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
19. The Song Remains the Same
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
20. What Are Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Telling Us Today?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
21. What Do Consumers Think Will Happen to Inflation?
    Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2021

22. Business More Like Usual
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
23. Ever Upward
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
24. Good Day Sunshine
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
25. Healthy Workforce, Healthy Economy
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
26. Measure Twice, Cut Once
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
27. Opening Remarks
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
28. Preparing for the Unknown
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
29. The Economic Outlook: Getting Back to "More Like Normal"
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
30. The Economic Recovery: Are We There Yet?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
31. The Theory of Average Inflation Targeting
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2020

32. 537 Days: Time Is Still Ticking
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33. A Different Kind of Recession
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
34. A New Chapter for the FOMC Monetary Policy Framework
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
35. A Solution to Every Puzzle
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
36. A Time for Bold Action
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
37. Building an Equitable Future
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
38. Getting to the Core of Culture
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
39. Inflation Targeting: Securing the Anchor
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)
40. Research, Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
41. Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
42. The Economic Outlook
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (1)
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (6)
43. The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
44. The Longer-Run Framework: A Look Ahead
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2019

45. 901 Days
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
46. A Tale of Many Economies
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
47. Banking culture: the path ahead: remarks at Building Cultural Capital in the Financial Services Industry: Emerging Practices, Risks and Opportunities, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
48. Discussion of 'Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or Is It Just Hibernating?' by Peter Hooper, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Amir Sufi: remarks at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
49. Diversity and Inclusion: We Are Not Where We Need to Be: remarks at OPEN Finance Forum, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
50. Fulfilling our economic potential: remarks at the Association for Neighborhood & Housing Development 2019 Annual Conference, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
51. If we fail to prepare, we prepare to rail: remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
52. LIBOR: The Clock Is Ticking
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
53. Living Life Near the ZLB
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (2)
54. Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (22)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in AEA Papers and Proceedings (2019)
55. Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
56. Monetary policy: a 'data dependent' approach: remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association's Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
57. Money Markets and the Federal Funds Rate: The Path Forward
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
58. No Man Is an Island
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
59. The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (44)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1997)
60. The Gold Beneath Our Feet
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
61. The economic outlook: the ‘new normal’ is now: remarks at The Economic Club of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
62. The joys of spring: remarks at the 21st Annual Bronx Bankers Breakfast, Bronx, New York
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
63. The research-policy nexus: ZLB, JMCB and FOMC: remarks at the Conference Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
64. The ‘new normal’ for growth: remarks at the Community Bankers Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
65. Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (35)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2019) View citations (11)
66. When the Facts Change…: remarks at the 9th High-Level Conference on the International Monetary System, Zürich, Switzerland
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York View citations (1)

2018

67. 'Normal' monetary policy in words and deeds: remarks at Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
68. Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2018)
69. Monetary policy strategies for a low-neutral-interest-rate world: remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
70. Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
71. Now is the time for banking culture reform: remarks at Governance and Culture Reform Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
72. Remarks at the 42nd Annual Central Banking Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
73. Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2018)
74. The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2018)
75. Welcoming remarks at the Investing in America's Workforce Book Launch Event, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
76. What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (18)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2018) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2021)

2017

77. From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes. Speech to the Forecasters Club, New York, New York, March 29, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
78. Interest Rates and the “New Normal”
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
79. Keeping the Recovery Sustainable: The Essential Role of an Independent Fed. Speech to the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce, Santa Cruz, California, February 28, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
80. Looking Back, Looking Ahead
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2017)
81. Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2017)
82. Monetary Policy’s Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2017)
83. Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks & Strategies in a Low R-Star World
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (14)
84. Risk, Resilience & Sustainable Growth: U.S. Monetary Policy in a Post-Recovery Era
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
85. Speed Limits and Stall Speeds: Fostering Sustainable Growth in the United States
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
86. The Global Challenge of Very Low R-Star
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
87. The Global Growth Slump: Causes & Consequences
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
88. The Jenga Tower of Prosperity: The Strong, Prosperous, And Resilient Communities Challenge (SPARCC). Speech to the SPARCC National Launch Event, New York, New York, March 30, 2017
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
89. What’s the Future of Interest Rates? The Answer’s in the Stars
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
90. When the United States Sneezes…
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2016

91. After the first rate hike
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
92. Assessing the New Normal(s). Speech to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco’s 2016 Member Conference, San Francisco, California, October 21, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
93. Discussion of “Language after liftoff: Fed communication away from the zero lower bound”
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
94. Diversity and Inclusion without Excuses. Speech at the Conference on “Improving Diversity in the Financial Services Industry: A Holistic View”, Rutgers University, Newark Campus, Newark, New Jersey, October 19, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
95. Fintech: the power of the possible and potential pitfalls. Speech at the LendIt USA 2016 conference, San Francisco, California, April 12, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
96. Longview: The Economic Outlook. Speech to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska, August 18, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
97. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (103)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (40)
98. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (93)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (110)
    See also Chapter (2016)
    Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2017)
99. Now that Winter is over, springtime is on my mind. Speech to the Sacramento Economic Forum, Sacramento, California, May 13, 2016
    Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
100. Rules of engagement
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
101. The health of nations
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
102. The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2016)
103. Trick of the light? The U.S. economy, global growth, and international risks in perspective. A speech at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and U.S. Embassy Speaker Series, Singapore, Singapore, March 29, 2016
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
104. Whither Inflation Targeting? Speech to the Hayek Group, Reno, Nevada, September 6, 2016
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)

2015

105. China, rates, and the outlook: may the (economic) force be with you
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
106. Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
107. Data is the new black: monetary policy by the numbers
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
108. Impact investing, impacting neighborhoods
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
109. Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
110. Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
111. Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
     See also Chapter (2016)
112. Monetary policy and the independence dilemma
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
113. The economic outlook: live long and prosper
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015)
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015)
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
114. The outlook, education, and the future of the American economy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
115. The recovery’s final frontier?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2015)
116. The rediscovery of financial market imperfections
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
117. The view from here: the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2014

118. A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2016)
119. Accommodative monetary policy: savior or saboteur?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
120. Economic conditions and monetary policy: a transitional phase introduction
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
121. Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (11)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
122. Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)
123. Inflation targeting and the global financial crisis: successes and challenges
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
124. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (336)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) View citations (8)
     2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2012) View citations (59)
     See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)
125. Navigating toward normal: the road back to the future for monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
126. The Federal Reserve: inside monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
127. The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2014)

2013

128. A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (13)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Macroeconomics (2013)
129. Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
130. Lessons from the financial crisis for unconventional monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
131. Life's unpredictable arc
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
132. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
     See also Chapter (2013)
133. Monetary policy and the recovery
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
134. Rebalancing the economy: a tale of two countries
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
135. The economic outlook and monetary policy: moving in the right direction
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
136. The economic outlook, unemployment, and monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
137. The economic recovery: past, present, and future
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2013)
138. The economy and monetary policy in uncertain times
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
139. The economy and monetary policy: follow the demand
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
140. The economy and the Federal Reserve: real progress, but too soon to relax
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
141. Will unconventional monetary policy be the new normal?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)

2012

142. Bank regulation in the post-crisis world
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
143. Discussion of \"Housing, monetary policy, and the recovery\"
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
144. Monetary policy and the slow recovery: It’s not just about housing
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
145. Monetary policy, money, and inflation
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
146. The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
147. The Federal Reserve's unconventional policies
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2012)
148. The Federal Reserve’s mandate and best practice monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
149. The economic outlook and challenges to monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012)
150. The economic outlook and monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011)
151. The economic outlook: global and domestic challenges to growth
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
152. The economy, fiscal policy, and monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
153. The role of monetary policy in bolstering economic growth
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
     Also in Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) View citations (1)
154. The slow recovery: causes and monetary policy implications
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
155. Welcoming remarks
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2011

156. Economics instruction and the brave new world of monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
157. Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (57)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2012)
158. Maintaining price stability in a global economy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
159. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
     Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2010) View citations (9)
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (7)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (2)
     See also Chapter (2013)
160. Monetary policy in an era of crises
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
161. Risk management and macroprudential supervisory policies
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
162. Swimming upstream: monetary policy following the financial crisis
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
163. The outlook for the U.S. economy and role for monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
164. The outlook for the economy and monetary policy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
165. Unconventional monetary policy: lessons from the past three years
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (30)
     See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2011)
166. Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2010

167. Sailing into headwinds: the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (10)
168. Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (134)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (67)
     See also Chapter (2010)
169. The economic outlook: moving forward on a bumpy road
     Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2009

170. Heeding Daedalus: Optimal inflation and the zero lower bound
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (50)
     See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2009)

2008

171. A Black Swan in the Money Market
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (105)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (36)
     See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2009)
172. Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market
     Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research View citations (56)
173. Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
     Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (6)
     Also in Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) View citations (5)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008)
     See also Chapter (2009)
174. LEARNING, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE PITFALLS OF OPTIMAL CONTROL MONETARY POLICY
     CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (56)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (41)
     Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus (2008) View citations (52)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2008)
175. WELFARE-MAXIMIZING MONETARY POLICY UNDER PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY
     CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (4)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (2)
     2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2007) View citations (2)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) View citations (2)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)

2007

176. Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (10)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2009)
177. Learning and the Role of Macroeconomic Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
     2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (18)
178. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
     Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (162)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2007) View citations (142)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) View citations (142)
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics (2005) View citations (20)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)

2006

179. Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge
     Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (21)
     Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics (2006) View citations (22)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (13)
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (36)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2006) View citations (11)
     See also Chapter (2007)
     Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)
180. Macroeconomic factors in the term structure of interest rates when agents learn
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics View citations (1)
181. Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
     See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2010)
182. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (39)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2006) View citations (35)
     See also Chapter (2008)

2005

183. Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (93)
     Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2003) View citations (24)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) View citations (15)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (11)
     See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2005)
184. Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (321)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations (105)
     See also Chapter (2006)
185. Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (16)
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics (2001) View citations (4)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of the European Economic Association (2006)
186. The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations
     CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (175)
     Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics (2004) View citations (15)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (5)
     CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2004) View citations (16)
     CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (2004)
     Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2004) View citations (24)
     International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (3)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2005)

2004

187. Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) View citations (1)
     See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2005)
188. Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (8)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2004) View citations (83)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2007)
189. Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
     See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2006)
190. Transition Dynamics in Vintage Capital Models: Explaining the Postwar Catch-Up of Germany and Japan
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (22)
     Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2001) View citations (15)
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2004) View citations (11)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (9)
     Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics (2001) View citations (12)
191. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
     Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2005)

2003

192. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (129)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) View citations (18)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2002) View citations (38)
     CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (80)
     CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (2003)
     See also Chapter (2004)
193. Inflation Scares and Monetary Policy
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (14)
194. Parameter Uncertainty and the Central Bank's Objective Function
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (18)
195. Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (215)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (137)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2003)
196. Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (115)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2002) View citations (140)
     See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2002)
197. The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
     CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies
     Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2003) View citations (252)
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2000, Society for Computational Economics (2000) View citations (6)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (29)
     Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) View citations (5)
     Working Paper Series, European Central Bank (2001) View citations (45)
     See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2003)
198. The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (43)
     Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2003) View citations (8)

2001

199. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
     Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics View citations (53)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (34)
     See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2003)

1999

200. Implications of the Zero Bound on Interest Rates for the Design of Monetary Policy Rules
     Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (3)
201. Simple rules for monetary policy
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (105)
     See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2003)
202. The Performance of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
     Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (9)
203. Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (62)
     See also Journal Article in Conference Series ; [Proceedings] (2000)
204. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
     Also in Working Papers, Harvard - Institute for International Development (1996) View citations (8)
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations (3)
     Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics View citations (53)
     Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics View citations (9)
     Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics (1999) View citations (13)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Growth (2000)
205. What's happened to the Phillips curve?
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (56)

1998

206. Investment, capacity, and output: a putty-clay approach
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
207. Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (31)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (2000)
208. Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (124)
     Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (202)
     See also Chapter (1999)

1997

209. Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
210. Measuring the social return to R&D
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (11)
     Also in Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics View citations (17)
     See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Journal of Economics (1998)

1995

211. The limits to \"growing an economy.\"
     Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2022

1. A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2022, 129, (S), S82-S101 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper (2022)

2021

2. What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
   American Economic Review, 2021, 111, (8), 2473-2505 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2020

3. The Research–Policy Nexus: ZLB, JMCB, and FOMC
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020, 52, (S2), 601-605

2019

4. J.C. Williams, When the United States Sneezes…
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2019, 95, (C), 185-188 View citations (1)
5. Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
   AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2019, 109, 427-32 View citations (28)
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2018

6. Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018
   See also Working Paper (2018)
7. Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018
   See also Working Paper (2018)
8. The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2017

9. Interest Rates and the \\"New Normal\\"
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
10. Looking Back, Looking Ahead
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
    See also Working Paper (2017)
11. Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants
    Journal of International Economics, 2017, 108, (S1), S59-S75 View citations (420)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
    Chapter (2016)
12. Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
    See also Working Paper (2017)
13. Monetary Policy's Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
    See also Working Paper (2017)
14. Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (14)
15. The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (3)
16. The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (3)
17. Three Questions on R-star
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (5)

2016

18. A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2016, 47, (PA), 5-18 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
19. After the first rate hike
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
    See also Working Paper (2016)
20. Data dependence awakens
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
21. Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
22. Longview: The Economic Outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
23. Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (35)
24. Rules of engagement
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
    See also Working Paper (2016)
25. The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

26. An overview of our 2015 Annual Report. John Williams, president and chief executive officer, and Mark Gould, first vice president, welcome you to the San Francisco Fed’s 2015 annual report, “What We’ve Learned…and why it matters”
    Annual Report, 2015, 02-02 View citations (2)
27. China in the global economy. SF Fed President John Williams talks with Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel, and Fernanda Nechio of the international research team about China's economic slowdown and how it's affecting global economic activity
    Annual Report, 2015, 07-07
28. Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
    See also Working Paper (2015)
29. Health and prosperity. Health and community prosperity are intrinsically linked. SF Fed Community Development’s Ian Galloway sits down with President John Williams to discuss the issue
    Annual Report, 2015, 06-06
30. Looking forward: the path for monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
31. Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
32. Measuring monetary policy’s effect on house prices
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (2)
33. Monetary policy and the independence dilemma
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
34. Redefining the labor market. SF Fed economists Rob Valletta, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Mary C. Daly share their thoughts on the U.S. labor market with fellow economist President John Williams
    Annual Report, 2015, 08-08
35. Regional influences on monetary policy. SF Fed Branch Managers Robin Rockwood, Steve Walker, and Roger Replogle talk with President John Williams about ensuring the diverse industries and geographies within our District have a voice
    Annual Report, 2015, 10-10
36. The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest
    Business Economics, 2015, 50, (2), 57-60 View citations (29)
37. The economic outlook: live long and prosper
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
    See also Working Paper (2015)
38. The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's David Erickson and Laura Choi sit down with President John Williams to discuss the fragility of American household finances and how to get more families on the road to economic opportunity
    Annual Report, 2015, 04-04
39. The fragility of finances. SF Fed Community Development's Laura Choi talks with President John Williams about creative placemaking, a neighborhood revitalization strategy that engages local artists and performers
    Annual Report, 2015, 05-05
40. The recovery’s final frontier?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
    See also Working Paper (2015)
41. The view from here: outlook and monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015
42. Transforming financial services. Banking supervision’s Tracy Basinger explains why the intersection of finance and technology–fintech–is a matter of great importance and interest to the Fed
    Annual Report, 2015, 09-09
43. What we’ve learned... and why it matters. 2015 Annual Report President's Letter
    Annual Report, 2015, 01-01

2014

44. Does college matter?
    Annual Report, 2014, (1), 1-24
45. Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
46. Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014
    See also Working Paper (2014)
47. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (10), 3154-85 View citations (361)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
48. Navigating toward normal: the future for policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014
49. Policy rules in practice
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, 49, (C), 151-153 View citations (5)
50. The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2013

51. A defense of moderation in monetary policy
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013, 38, (PB), 137-150 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
52. Bubbles Tomorrow and Bubbles Yesterday, but Never Bubbles Today&quest
    Business Economics, 2013, 48, (4), 224-230 View citations (22)
53. Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (sept23) View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
54. Economic outlook: moving in the right direction
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (may20)
55. Monetary policy in uncertain times
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (jan21) View citations (3)
56. Rebalancing the economy: a tale of two countries
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (nov12)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
57. The San Francisco Fed and the West: a century of reinvention
    Annual Report, 2013, (1), 1-9
58. The economic recovery: past, present, and future
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (july1)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
59. The economy and Fed policy: follow the demand
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (feb25) View citations (1)
60. Will unconventional policy be the new normal?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (oct7) View citations (4)

2012

61. Cash is dead! Long live cash!: annual report essay
    Annual Report, 2012
62. Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, (s1), 47-82 View citations (30)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, 47-82 (2012) View citations (232)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
63. Monetary policy, money, and inflation
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (july9) View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
64. The Federal Reserve and the economic recovery
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (jan17)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
65. The Federal Reserve’s unconventional policies
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (nov13) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
66. The economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (oct1)
67. The outlook and monetary policy challenges
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (july23)
68. The slow recovery: it’s not just housing
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (apr9)

2011

69. Economics instruction and the brave new world of monetary policy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (june6) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
70. Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (jan31) View citations (10)
71. Maintaining price stability in a global economy
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (may9)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
72. Monetary Policy and Housing Booms
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2011, 7, (1), 345-355 View citations (22)
73. Opening the temple: annual report essay
    Annual Report, 2011
74. Unconventional monetary policy: lessons from the past three years
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (oct3) View citations (36)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
75. What is the new normal unemployment rate?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (feb14) View citations (18)

2010

76. Comment
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 48 - 52
77. Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning
    Economic Review, 2010, 1-12 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
78. The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2010, 6, (1), 367 - 375 View citations (5)
    See also Chapter (2010)
79. The shape of things to come
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (may17)
80. Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 129-143 View citations (18)
    Also in Proceedings, 2007 (2007) View citations (6)
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 129-143 (2010) View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2009

81. A Black Swan in the Money Market
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2009, 1, (1), 58-83 View citations (271)
    Also in Proceedings, 2009, (Jan) (2009) View citations (204)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
82. Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, (4), 492-503 View citations (156)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
83. Heeding Daedalus: Optimal Inflation and the Zero Lower Bound
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009, 40, (2 (Fall)), 1-49 View citations (98)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
84. How big is the output gap?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (jun12) View citations (15)
85. The risk of deflation
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (mar27) View citations (8)

2008

86. Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (Supplement 1), S80-S96 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2007

87. Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge
    Economic Review, 2007, 1-23 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
    Chapter (2007)
88. Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2421-2438 View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
89. Monetary policy, transparency, and credibility: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (may25) View citations (3)
90. Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (5), 1406-1435 View citations (158)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2006

91. Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (oct13) View citations (31)
92. Labor markets and the macroeconomy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (jul21)
93. Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006, 4, (2-3), 366-375 View citations (74)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
94. Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change
    Economic Review, 2006, 1-16 View citations (3)
    Also in Proceedings, 2005, 53-81 (2005) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

95. Expectations, learning and monetary policy
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1807-1808 View citations (19)
96. Fiscal and monetary policy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (jun10)
97. Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 498-527 View citations (94)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
98. Investment, Capacity, and Uncertainty: A Putty-Clay Approach
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (1), 1-27 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
99. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29, (11), 1927-1950 View citations (135)
    Also in Proceedings, 2003 (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2005)
100. Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52, (5), 855-879 View citations (31)
     See also Working Paper (2004)

2004

101. Technology, productivity, and public policy
     FRBSF Economic Letter, 2004, (mar12)

2003

102. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
     The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, 85, (4), 1063-1070 View citations (668)
     See also Working Paper (2001)
103. Robust monetary policy with competing reference models
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (5), 945-975 View citations (222)
     See also Working Paper (2003)
104. Simple rules for monetary policy
     Economic Review, 2003, 1-12 View citations (38)
     See also Working Paper (1999)
105. The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
     American Economic Review, 2003, 93, (3), 622-645 View citations (295)
     See also Working Paper (2003)
106. The natural rate of interest
     FRBSF Economic Letter, 2003, (oct31) View citations (26)

2002

107. Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
     Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2002, 33, (2), 63-146 View citations (275)
     See also Working Paper (2003)

2000

108. Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
     Journal of Political Economy, 2000, 108, (5), 928-960 View citations (122)
     See also Working Paper (1998)
109. Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era
     Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2000, 936-978 View citations (377)
     See also Working Paper (1999)
110. Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D
     Journal of Economic Growth, 2000, 5, (1), 65-85 View citations (387)
     See also Working Paper (1999)

1999

111. Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective
     Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1999, 85, (Jan), 1-19 View citations (82)

1998

112. Implementing price stability bands, boundaries and inflation targeting
     Proceedings, 1998, (Mar) View citations (6)
113. Measuring the Social Return to R&D
     The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1998, 113, (4), 1119-1135 View citations (447)
     See also Working Paper (1997)

1997

114. The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board
     Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1997, 47, (1), 43-81 View citations (152)
     See also Working Paper (2019)
115. The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model
     Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1997, 83, (Apr), 227-245 View citations (90)

Chapters

2016

1. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, 2016 View citations (171)
   See also Working Paper (2016)
   Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2017)
2. Measuring the effects of monetary policy on house prices and the economy
   A chapter in Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, 2016, vol. 88, pp 7-16 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
3. Panel on Independence, Accountability, and Transparency in Central Bank Governance
   Chapter 6 in Central bank Governance & Oversight Reform, 2016

2013

4. Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, 2013, pp 2-21 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper (2013)
5. Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
   A chapter in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, 2013, pp 255-288 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper (2011)

2010

6. Comment on "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001"
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 48-51
7. Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy
   Chapter 15 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 829-859 View citations (136)
   See also Working Paper (2010)
8. The Zero Lower Bound: Lessons from the Past Decade
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, 2010, pp 367-375
   See also Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2010)
9. Wrap-up Discussion
   A chapter in Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, 2010

2009

10. Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
    Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, 2009, vol. 13, pp 115-144 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2008

11. Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections
    A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2008, pp 247-289 View citations (99)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

12. Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge
    Chapter 4 in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, 2007, vol. 11, pp 077-123 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
    Journal Article in Economic Review (2007)

2006

13. Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, 2006, pp 229-312 View citations (178)
    See also Working Paper (2005)

2004

14. Discussion of 'A Snapshot of Inflation Targeting in its Adolescence'
    A chapter in The Future of Inflation Targeting, 2004
15. Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy
    A chapter in The Inflation-Targeting Debate, 2004 View citations (83)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

1999

16. Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
    A chapter in Monetary Policy Rules, 1999, pp 263-318 View citations (375)
    See also Working Paper (1998)