The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Annemarie Schweinert

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

Abstract: A labor force participation rate that is at or above its long-run trend is consistent with a labor market at or above full employment. In 2018, the estimated rate is at its trend of 62.8%, suggesting that the labor market is at full employment. Studying the population?s demographic makeup and labor trends for different groups sheds some light on what is driving the aggregate participation trend and implications for the future. Projections based on these trends estimate that labor participation will decline about 2.5 percentage points over the next decade.

Date: 2018
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