Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?

Hamza Abdelrahman and Andrew Foerster

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 14, 5

Abstract: Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised the question of whether the economy is entering a high-productivity growth period. Two well-known productivity measures do not yet provide strong evidence of this shift. However, recent patterns resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized, giving reason for cautious optimism about future productivity growth.

Keywords: productivity; productivity growth; labor productivity; artificial intelligence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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