The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases

Caroline M. Paulson, Aditi Poduri, Aayush Singh and Mauricio Ulate

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2025, vol. 2025, issue 16, 5

Abstract: Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although manufacturing employment increases. Results also indicate a decline in overall real income for the United States of around 0.4%, although this number masks important variation across U.S. states.

Keywords: trade policy; tariffs; employment; manufacturing employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2025-17.pdf Full text - article PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfel:101257

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in FRBSF Economic Letter from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library ().