The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

Bryan Stuart

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2022, vol. 14, issue 1, 42-74

Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year.

JEL-codes: E32 I21 I26 J24 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income (2019)
Working Paper: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income (2017)
Working Paper: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income (2017)
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DOI: 10.1257/app.20180055

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