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The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

Bryan Stuart

No 12426, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0-10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 10 percent and income in adulthood by 3 percent. Simple calculations suggest that, in aggregate, the 1980-1982 recession led to 0.8-1.8 million fewer college graduates and $42-$87 billion less earned income per year.

Keywords: human capital; education; income; recessions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 I20 I30 J13 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 94 pages
Date: 2019-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-edu, nep-his, nep-lma, nep-mac and nep-pke
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income (2017) Downloads
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