Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends
Yunus Aksoy (),
Henrique Basso (),
Ronald Smith () and
Tobias Grasl ()
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2019, vol. 11, issue 1, 193-222
We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970–2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment and real interest rates across OECD countries.
JEL-codes: E22 E23 E32 E43 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170114
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrie ... QcLzaWgbL2B5GQjtNg_V (application/pdf)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrie ... SdqDh7Gu3JuOIJkRDExW (application/zip)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
Working Paper: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends (2016)
Working Paper: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends (2015)
Working Paper: Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:193-222
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this article
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics is currently edited by Simon Gilchrist
More articles in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().