Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War
Benjamin Jones and
Benjamin Olken
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2009, vol. 1, issue 2, 55-87
Abstract:
Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new dataset of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify the effects of assassination. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history. (JEL D72, N40, O17)
JEL-codes: D72 N40 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.2.55
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (67)
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Related works:
Working Paper: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War (2007) 
Working Paper: Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War (2007) 
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