Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times

Michael Greenstone, Alexandre Mas and Hoai-Luu Nguyen

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2020, vol. 12, issue 1, 200-225

Abstract: Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997–2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times.

JEL-codes: E32 E44 E52 G21 G32 L25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (93)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and ‘Normal’ Economic Times (2014)
Working Paper: Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:200-225

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DOI: 10.1257/pol.20160005

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