Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler and Flavio Toxvaerd

American Economic Review: Insights, 2021, vol. 3, issue 3, 321-38

Abstract: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon.

JEL-codes: I12 I18 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200343 (application/pdf)
https://doi.org/10.3886/E122761V1 (text/html)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200343.appx (application/pdf)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aeri.20200343.ds (application/zip)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-COV-2 (2020)
Working Paper: Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2 (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aerins:v:3:y:2021:i:3:p:321-38

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200343

Access Statistics for this article

American Economic Review: Insights is currently edited by Amy Finkelstein

More articles in American Economic Review: Insights from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().