EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

Chryssi Giannitsarou (), Stephen Kissler and Flavio Toxvaerd ()

No 14852, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.

Keywords: COVID-19; Economic epidemiology; optimal policy for infection control; SEIRS; Social distancing; waning immunity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E61 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14852 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14852

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=14852

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2020-11-11
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14852