The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

Martha Bailey and Eric Chyn

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2020, vol. 110, 220-25

Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of the Vietnam War on fertility rates in the late 1960s and early 1970s. For draft-eligible men wishing to avoid military service, the hardship deferment (III-A) for paternity created a powerful incentive to father a child. We provide a time series analysis suggesting that the risk of being drafted and the availability of the paternity deferments significantly increased US fertility rates, especially among childless women likely to be partnered with draft-eligible men. Our results suggest caution in attributing the decline in fertility after 1970 solely to the legalization of abortion.

JEL-codes: H56 J13 J16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201106

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