Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession

Jessamyn Schaller, Price Fishback and Kelli Marquardt

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2020, vol. 110, 236-40

Abstract: This paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937–2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960–1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.

JEL-codes: E32 J13 N12 N32 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201109

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