Long-Term Employment Effects from Job Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis? A Comparison to the Great Recession and Its Slow Recovery

Till von Wachter

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2021, vol. 111, 481-85

Abstract: This paper compares predictions for the long-term reductions in the employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio based on estimates of the overall job-loss rate and the long-term effects of job loss with the actual evolution of the EPOP ratio. It took about ten years after the end of the Great Recession for the EPOP ratio to recover from substantial reductions partly implied by job-loss effects. Based on job loss during the COVID-19 crisis through July, the prediction is that 15–37 percent of the reduction of the EPOP ratio in December 2020 is permanent.

JEL-codes: E24 E32 G01 I12 J63 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211091

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