Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?

Jose Asturias, Emin Dinlersoz, John Haltiwanger and Rebecca Hutchinson

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023, vol. 113, 151-55

Abstract: Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.

JEL-codes: E23 E24 E32 I12 J23 L25 M13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231053

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