Labor Mobility and Unemployment over the Business Cycle

Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting and Linda L. Tesar

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023, vol. 113, 590-96

Abstract: We estimate the responsiveness of net labor migration to regional differences in unemployment rates across the United States since the mid-1970s. Our baseline estimate suggests an elasticity of roughly -0.3. For typical labor force participation ratios, an increase of 100 unemployed workers in an area is associated with net out-migration of roughly 47 workers. Instrumenting for regional unemployment produces even higher estimates. Our estimates are stable over time, inclusive of the Great Recession. The estimates depend crucially on accurate data and accounting for long-term trends in migration and unemployment.

JEL-codes: E24 E32 J61 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231079

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