The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE

Murat Iyigun, Joris Mueller and Nancy Qian

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2024, vol. 114, 80-83

Abstract: This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period 1400–1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context that suffered extensive cooling. The results show that temperature changes have little effect on conflict if they are isolated events but that consecutive periods of cooling are associated with increased conflict. This is consistent with the conventional wisdom that societies and economies are able to adapt to a certain amount of environmental change. But if climate change is prolonged, then the disruptions they cause can cumulate and lead to political instability.

JEL-codes: D72 D74 N40 N50 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20241058

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