AI-Accelerated Occupational Decline and the Mobility Trap

Xi Song, Jennie E. Brand, Sukie Xiuqi Yang and Michael Lachanski

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2026, vol. 116, 246-250

Abstract: Economic transformation challenges workers beyond job creation or loss by reshaping their ability to move across occupations. This paper examines whether AI-driven occupational restructuring, accelerated after 2018 by transformer-based technologies, creates a “mobility trap” for workers in declining, high-AI-exposed occupations. Using BLS administrative data and CPS worker transitions, we analyze who moves, where they move, and with what outcomes. We find that while these workers are more mobile, they are 5.2 times more likely to move into another declining occupation than a growing one. Nearly 70 percent experience downward or lateral mobility, suggesting that AI-driven restructuring entrenches disadvantage rather than enabling upward mobility.

JEL-codes: J22 J23 J62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261004

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