Liquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession

Gauti B. Eggertsson and Sergei K. Egiev

Journal of Economic Literature, 2025, vol. 63, issue 4, 1424-1551

Abstract: This review of liquidity traps unifies three landmark economic downturns—the US Great Depression, the Great Recession, and Japan's Long Recession—into a single analytical framework. We examine various forces that drive natural interest rates negative: temporarily (such as banking crises and debt overhangs) or permanently (such as demographic shifts and inequality). When policy rates hit the zero lower bound, conventional monetary tools lose traction. Under a standard monetary policy regime, counterintuitive paradoxes emerge: Greater price flexibility deepens recessions, and positive supply shocks become contractionary. We show how policy effects—including the size of fiscal multipliers, forward guidance, and these paradoxes—depend critically on the monetary-fiscal regime and on central bank credibility. The paper explain show regime changes, such as Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1933 abandonment of the gold standard and balanced-budget dogmas, successfully reversed deep slumps by credibly shifting expectations. We examine whether secular-stagnation forces are likely to assert themselves in the coming decades.

JEL-codes: E23 E42 E43 E52 E62 G01 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1257/jel.20241306

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