Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Paula Gobbi, Anne Hannusch and Pauline Rossi

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, vol. 40, issue 1, 47-70

Abstract: Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.

JEL-codes: E23 E24 I12 J11 J12 J13 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.20251460 (application/pdf)
https://doi.org/10.3886/E239791V1 (text/html)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24602 (application/pdf)
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24603 (application/zip)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2026)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2026)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2025)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2025)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2025)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:jecper:v:40:y:2026:i:1:p:47-70

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251460

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Perspectives is currently edited by Enrico Moretti

More articles in Journal of Economic Perspectives from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().