Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Paula Gobbi, Anne Hannusch () and Pauline Rossi ()
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Anne Hannusch: Universität Bonn = University of Bonn
Pauline Rossi: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.

Date: 2026-02-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo
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Published in Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2026, 40 (1), pp.47-70. ⟨10.1257/jep.20251460⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2026)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2026)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2025)
Working Paper: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05496893

DOI: 10.1257/jep.20251460

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