Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder and Dirk Trocka

Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), 2009, vol. 60, issue Supplement, 55-82

Abstract: We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009–2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch. Comment by Hilmar Schneider.

Keywords: demographic change; labor demand for high skilled workers; labor force forecast; vocational training (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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