Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder and Dirk Trocka

No 13/2009, IWH Discussion Papers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Abstract: We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population aging and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period from 2009 to 2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilledlabor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In a second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plans to expand further education efforts and to hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.

Keywords: demographic change; labor demand for highskilled workers; labor force forecast; vocational training; Demographischer Wandel; Arbeitsnachfrage; Fachkräfte; Prognose des Arbeitsangebots; Berufsausbildung (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-13-09

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