How Deep and How Long Could Be the Recession in Romania

Lucian Albu () and Vasile Dinu

The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, 2009, vol. 11, issue Number Special 3, 675-683

Abstract: Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to build a composite indicator based on some monthly time series and to use it in order to obtain short-term forecasts for economic activity at national level. This indicator could be useful taking into account that actually there is no synthetic indicator to describe short-run dynamics of economic activity. To verify hypotheses of the estimating model for composite index, we used in case of Romanian economy the quarterly time series for the elements of it and quarterly published GDP as a benchmark indicator.

Keywords: composite index; economic recession; business cycle indicators; high frequency time series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C63 C82 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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