Impact of Economic Development Model on the Fitting Effect of the Mathematical Model of Changes in Cultivated Land Resources

Xin Yao and Min Zhang

Asian Agricultural Research, 2014, vol. 06, issue 02, 5

Abstract: The mathematical model is often used for fitting the trend of changes in cultivated land resources in the land use planning, but the fitting effect is different in different study areas. In this paper, we take two geographically adjacent cities with great differences in the economic development model, Xinghua City and Jingjiang City, as the research object. Using logarithmic model (M1), Kuznets model (M2), logistic model (M3) and multivariate linear model ( M4), we fit the process of changes in cultivated land resources during the period 1980-2009, and compare the differences in the fitting effect between different models. In terms of the model fitting effect in Xinghua City, it is in the order of M3>M4>M1>M2, which is related to the fact that the local areas lay great emphasis on agricultural development, and pay close attention to ensuring the cultivated land area; in terms of the model fitting effect in Jingjiang City, it is in the order of M1>M3>M4>M2, and the deep-seated cause is that its development model is dominated by extended trade expansion, and the level of intensive land use is constantly improved. In addition, we discuss the multi-stage characteristics of changes in cultivated land resources, and propose a solution of using the same model to simulate in various phases. The research results in Jingjiang City show that the coefficient of determination in the first phase (R2=0.958) and the standard error (SE =0.261) are both better than those of the original model (R2=0.945，SE=0.312); the coefficient of determination in the second phase is slightly low (R2=0.851), but the standard error is greatly improved (SE=0.137). Compared with the research conclusions of other scholars, it can be believed that this method can better solve the problems that the scatter plot of logistic model presents wave-shape and the scatter plot of Kuznets model presents "M"-shape, in order to improve the applicability of mathematical models.

Keywords: Agribusiness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/164958/files/4.PDF (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:asagre:164958

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164958

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Asian Agricultural Research from USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().