Estimation of Potential Habitat of Caragana acanthophylla in Xinjiang Based on Maximum Entropy Model

Jinglu Zhang, Yali Zhu, Huifang Zhang, Jian Gao and Dilixiati•Baoerhan

Asian Agricultural Research, vol. 16, issue 03

Abstract: [Objectives] To determine the potential habitat range of Caragana acanthophylla in Xinjiang. [Methods] The known distribution points of C. acanthophylla were used as samples, and a MaxEnt model was developed based on their climatic variables to identify key environmental factors affecting the potential habitats of C. acanthophylla through jackknife method and construction of a response relationship between representative variables and habitat suitability; the suitability of habitats for C. acanthophylla in Xinjiang was evaluated based on the output results of the model. [Results] (i) The accuracy of the model verified by AUC curve was 0.971, indicating that the potential habitats of C. acanthophylla in Xinjiang predicted by MaxEnt model were highly credible. (ii) The optimum climatic characteristics for the distribution of C. acanthophylla in Xinjiang were: isothermality 18.8%-34%℃, minimum temperature of coldest month -30~-13℃, mean temperature of coldest quarter -18~-4℃, annual precipitation 80-410 mm, precipitation of driest month 0-25 mm, precipitation of driest quarter 0-82 mm, and precipitation of coldest quarter 0-75 mm. (iii) The total potential distribution area of C. acanthophylla in Xinjiang was modeled to be 1.03×105 km2, of which 8.54×103 km2 was high suitability area, mainly in the front mountain belt of the north slope of Tianshan Mountain in Urumqi City, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and the front mountain belt of Barluk Mountain in Tacheng Prefecture. [Conclusions] This study is of great significance for the future scientific management, regeneration, vegetation restoration and ecological protection of C. acanthophylla.

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:asagre:349071

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.349071

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