Target Prediction of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Influencing Factors and Time Series Model—A Case of Anqiu City, China

Jun Wu and Yu Cheng

Asian Agricultural Research, 2009, vol. 01, issue 11-12, 5

Abstract: Taking Anqiu City, Shandong Province, China as an example, dynamic change of cultivated land resources of Anqiu City is analyzed from the aspects of the quantitative change of cultivated land resources, the structural change of cultivated land resources, and the regional differences of cultivated land change. Based on the land demand prediction of grain demand, the land demand prediction of economic crop production, and the land requirement goal, factors affecting the requirement goals of cultivated land resources are discussed. Linear Prediction Model and Polynomial Forecasting Model are used to discuss the goal forecast of cultivated land resources based on time series, which provides basis for decision making of land use in Anqiu City within planning period. Result shows that total area of cultivated land increases year by year and the per capita cultivated land is relatively stable. Proportion of irrigated cultivated land in cultivated land is decreasing gradually and that of dry land is increasing. Dynamic change of cultivated among township streets shows no significant regional differences. Due to the increase of population, per capita cultivated land will be under great pressure and the situation of cultivated land is still not optimistic.

Keywords: Agribusiness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/93456/files/aar11.12-m.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:asagre:93456

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.93456

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Asian Agricultural Research from USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().